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KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
80%
ICON
51%
AIFS
51%
EPS
33%
HRES
30%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u
VS
HRESNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.05u · HRES −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:00ICON: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:04+00:0058.8%15.2%65.0%40.4%46.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0058.8%15.2%67.4%40.4%46.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0058.8%15.2%67.4%40.4%46.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0058.8%15.2%67.4%40.4%46.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:0064.9%15.2%67.4%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0064.9%15.2%67.4%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0064.9%15.2%67.4%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0064.9%15.2%67.4%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:0064.9%15.2%67.4%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:0064.9%33.4%80.3%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0064.9%33.4%80.3%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0064.9%33.4%80.3%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0050.8%33.4%80.3%29.6%51.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0050.8%33.4%80.3%29.6%51.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 280%80.0°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend75%78.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON51%76.7°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single51%76.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble33%74.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES30%73.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗