KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

22%

17%

16%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

EPSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.30u · EPS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	52.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	27.1%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.6%	34.3%	0.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.8%	51.5%	3.8%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	5.6%	38.0%	10.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	9.7%	32.3%	1.6%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	3.8%	28.6%	2.6%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	4.5%	46.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	18.4%	48.2%	3.2%	9.7%	6.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	76.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	74.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗