KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

22%

17%

16%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

EPSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.30u · EPS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	28.9%	8.9%	38.4%	14.3%	1.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	28.9%	8.9%	38.4%	14.3%	1.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	28.9%	8.9%	38.4%	14.3%	1.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	35.7%	8.9%	38.4%	14.3%	1.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	35.7%	8.9%	38.5%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	38.5%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	38.5%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	34.8%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	34.8%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	34.8%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	35.7%	6.3%	34.8%	14.2%	1.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	34.8%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	34.8%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	34.8%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	34.8%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	29.5%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	37.1%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	37.1%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	37.1%	6.3%	22.3%	17.2%	16.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	76.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	74.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗