KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

89%

86%

61%

61%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

ICONNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · ICON −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	63.1%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	72.0%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	27.3%	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	41.3%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	70.2%	48.6%	43.7%	—	81.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	83.5%	50.7%	87.6%	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	83.1%	71.7%	70.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	82.1%	92.2%	85.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	29.0%	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	92.0%	79.3%	84.8%	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	87.2%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	60.4%	77.2%	24.8%	—	66.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	87.5%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	50.9%	74.1%	25.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	54.7%	84.6%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	41.3%	78.2%	19.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	86.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	54.1%	70.6%	59.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	47.9%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.2%	88.1%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	86.5%	53.4%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	74.0%	61.5%	74.0%	—	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	82.5%	61.9%	65.3%	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	90.0%	59.9%	51.2%	42.6%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	82.6%	56.4%	41.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	90.5%	68.1%	46.0%	48.7%	60.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	76.8%	66.2%	47.2%	—	63.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	70.7%	91.1%	45.7%	68.2%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	81.9%	85.6%	63.3%	—	76.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	93.9%	95.9%	65.4%	76.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	96.3%	96.6%	81.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	89%	81.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	86%	82.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0199
IFS HRES	61%	78.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1490
ICON	61%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1529
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2016
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗