KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

89%

86%

61%

61%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

ICONNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · ICON −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	95.3%	87.2%	77.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	95.3%	87.2%	77.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	95.9%	87.2%	77.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	95.9%	87.2%	77.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	95.9%	87.2%	77.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:03+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	95.9%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	95.9%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	95.9%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	95.9%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	95.9%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	94.1%	99.4%	98.3%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	94.1%	99.9%	98.3%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	94.1%	99.9%	98.3%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	91.6%	99.9%	98.3%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	91.5%	99.9%	98.3%	83.2%	89.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:57+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	96.2%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	96.2%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	97.8%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	97.8%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	97.8%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	95.1%	89.2%	97.8%	54.5%	48.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	97.8%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	97.8%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	97.8%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	97.8%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	83.7%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	85.9%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	85.9%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	85.9%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	85.9%	89.2%	95.2%	61.4%	60.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	89%	81.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	86%	82.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0199
IFS HRES	61%	78.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1490
ICON	61%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1529
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2016
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗