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KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
12%
WN2
12%
EPS
3%
ICON
3%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u
VS
HRESNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.60u · HRES −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:003.6%————3.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0021.2%————22.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0017.2%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0043.1%————28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0027.0%————26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0036.4%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0016.5%————20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.6%————29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————21.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0032.5%————28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0035.9%————30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0029.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0020.0%————20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0036.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0048.3%————21.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.9%————18.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.8%—9.0%——21.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.1%—12.5%——16.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.4%—6.6%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:002.8%—0.8%——20.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:003.9%—0.3%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:009.6%—1.8%——12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0013.4%—0.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0012.6%7.9%2.4%1.8%—14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0016.1%—7.0%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0010.6%14.8%2.3%19.4%—16.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:007.2%—5.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:006.8%12.5%6.3%5.8%—11.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.1%—7.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0015.4%10.0%21.8%12.7%—9.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0010.2%0.2%4.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0014.3%18.4%6.9%10.1%—8.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:004.9%11.1%2.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.0%1.6%4.7%0.1%—2.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.1%9.2%5.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.0%0.6%2.9%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%5.6%——0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%2.9%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.7%4.7%3.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%1.1%0.5%—0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.3%4.7%0.1%3.3%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%2.2%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%0.2%0.5%—0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%0.1%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.2%1.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.3%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single12%83.2°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:000.0156
WeatherNext 212%84.1°F3.7°F2026-10-14 18:000.0139
IFS Ensemble3%83.0°F3.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0011
National Blend3%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 00:000.0008
ICON3%79.3°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0008
NWS forecast2%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 03:000.0002
IFS HRES1%77.1°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗