KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

HRESNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.60u · HRES −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:50+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	31.9%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	31.9%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	31.9%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	31.9%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:42+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	31.9%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	25.3%	23.1%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	25.3%	23.1%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	25.3%	23.1%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	33.3%	23.1%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	33.4%	23.1%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	20.3%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	22.1%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	22.1%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	33.4%	24.0%	22.1%	32.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	22.1%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	22.1%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	22.1%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	22.1%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	22.1%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	34.0%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	29.3%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	31.4%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	31.4%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	40.1%	24.0%	31.4%	27.4%	36.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:03+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	31.4%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	31.4%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	31.4%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	31.4%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	31.4%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	30.5%	24.0%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	30.5%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	30.5%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	38.8%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	23.7%	37.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	32.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	24.3%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:38+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	31.5%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	36.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	36.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	36.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	26.1%	10.7%	36.3%	35.7%	36.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:07+00:00	39.6%	10.7%	36.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	39.6%	10.7%	36.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	39.6%	10.7%	36.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	39.6%	10.7%	36.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	39.6%	5.5%	26.2%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	39.6%	5.5%	26.2%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	39.6%	5.5%	26.2%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	39.6%	5.5%	26.2%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	31.4%	5.5%	26.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	26.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	26.3%	17.0%	25.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	26.3%	17.4%	25.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	25.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	25.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	31.4%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	25.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	20.4%	17.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	20.4%	16.1%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	39.6%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	22.1%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	29.7%	15.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	29.7%	6.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	21.7%	3.5%	11.3%	6.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	21.7%	3.5%	11.3%	6.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	21.7%	3.5%	11.3%	6.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	16.9%	3.5%	11.3%	6.7%	4.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	16.9%	3.5%	11.3%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	11.3%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	11.3%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	11.3%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	4.0%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	4.0%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	4.0%	6.7%	4.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	9.2%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	9.2%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	9.2%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:03+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	4.3%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	11.8%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	11.8%	1.1%	2.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	11.8%	1.1%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	12%	83.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0156
WeatherNext 2	12%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0139
IFS Ensemble	3%	83.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0011
National Blend	3%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0008
ICON	3%	79.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0008
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0002
IFS HRES	1%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗