KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

94%

88%

80%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.5¢Risks 44.75u

HRESNO 10.5¢Risks 5.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.25u · HRES −5.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	76.4%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	46.0%	94.2%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	77.0%	85.1%	46.5%	—	85.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	84.8%	88.0%	91.6%	—	88.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	96.7%	90.3%	91.0%	—	87.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	94.3%	93.3%	68.4%	—	77.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	40.3%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	79.9%	91.6%	38.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	90.8%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	80.4%	91.3%	44.8%	—	63.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	94.8%	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	87.1%	84.5%	91.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	73.9%	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	95.1%	75.3%	95.1%	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	86.0%	66.5%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	85.5%	74.9%	92.6%	—	77.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	87.9%	82.4%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	89.1%	71.8%	69.9%	2.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	91.3%	92.1%	0.1%	—	76.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	93.5%	89.5%	79.3%	66.9%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	80.1%	88.0%	77.5%	—	70.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	80.9%	94.1%	72.4%	6.3%	75.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	63.9%	86.5%	80.9%	—	77.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	72.7%	82.7%	74.9%	82.7%	77.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	76.8%	81.8%	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	91.6%	87.0%	88.5%	73.2%	83.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	86.4%	83.8%	88.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	77.4%	87.5%	87.5%	60.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	73.3%	74.6%	85.9%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	98%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	94%	83.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0036
ICON	88%	81.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0139
IFS HRES	80%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0412
National Blend	72%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0795
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗