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KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
94%
ICON
88%
HRES
80%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 89.5¢Risks 44.75u
VS
HRESNO 10.5¢Risks 5.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.25u · HRES −5.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:0092.0%87.7%98.7%80.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0092.0%87.7%97.8%80.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0092.0%87.7%97.8%80.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0092.0%87.7%97.8%80.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:0093.3%87.7%97.8%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0093.3%87.7%97.8%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0093.3%87.7%97.8%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0093.3%87.7%97.8%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0093.3%87.7%97.8%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0093.3%99.3%98.1%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0093.3%99.3%98.1%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0093.3%99.3%98.1%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0093.9%99.3%98.1%79.7%88.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0094.0%99.3%98.1%79.7%88.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%83.6°F2.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0000
WeatherNext 298%83.9°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0004
AIFS Single94%83.8°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0036
ICON88%81.7°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0139
IFS HRES80%80.9°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0412
National Blend72%80.0°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:000.0795
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗