KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

82%

79%

67%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.2¢Risks 81.20u

HRESNO 18.8¢Risks 18.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.80u · HRES −18.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	33.0%	89.2%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	65.1%	75.4%	33.0%	—	75.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	74.6%	79.0%	84.4%	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	92.7%	82.1%	83.1%	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	88.1%	86.4%	53.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	25.6%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	66.2%	83.2%	23.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	81.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	66.2%	82.2%	28.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	87.9%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	74.9%	71.0%	82.2%	—	49.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	56.6%	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	87.9%	57.7%	87.9%	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	71.8%	47.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	70.6%	56.1%	82.4%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	73.8%	65.5%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	75.3%	51.1%	48.9%	0.6%	62.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	78.6%	80.2%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	82.5%	74.9%	59.2%	44.2%	53.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	59.5%	71.7%	56.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	59.9%	82.6%	48.8%	1.6%	52.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	38.5%	67.5%	59.0%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	47.3%	60.6%	50.0%	60.6%	52.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.4%	58.3%	47.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	74.4%	65.5%	68.2%	45.7%	60.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	63.3%	59.0%	66.2%	—	36.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	48.4%	63.9%	63.9%	30.3%	29.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	43.4%	59.8%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	83.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0021
WeatherNext 2	92%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0061
AIFS Single	82%	83.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0328
ICON	79%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0424
IFS HRES	67%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1089
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗