KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

82%

79%

67%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.2¢Risks 81.20u

HRESNO 18.8¢Risks 18.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.80u · HRES −18.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:57+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	91.9%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	91.9%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	96.0%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	96.0%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	96.0%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	93.9%	76.1%	96.0%	48.4%	77.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	96.0%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	96.0%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	96.0%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	96.0%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	75.0%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	80.2%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	80.2%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	80.2%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	80.2%	76.1%	92.7%	58.7%	82.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	79.3%	70.2%	91.4%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	79.3%	70.3%	91.4%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	79.3%	70.3%	91.4%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	79.3%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	79.3%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	79.3%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	76.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	76.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	76.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	96.5%	47.3%	76.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	96.5%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	78.7%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	82.5%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	82.5%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	82.5%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	82.5%	70.3%	94.9%	65.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	92.2%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	92.2%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	89.0%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	89.0%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	89.0%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	85.5%	95.4%	89.0%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	89.0%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	89.0%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	89.0%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	89.0%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	83.8%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	81.9%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	81.9%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	81.9%	95.4%	92.2%	67.0%	79.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	83.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0021
WeatherNext 2	92%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0061
AIFS Single	82%	83.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0328
ICON	79%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0424
IFS HRES	67%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1089
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗