KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

64%

57%

56%

16%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.45u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.55u · ICON −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:03+00:00	82.3%	72.9%	74.4%	32.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	82.3%	72.9%	74.4%	32.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	82.3%	72.9%	82.9%	32.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	82.3%	72.9%	82.9%	32.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	82.3%	72.9%	82.9%	32.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:24+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	82.9%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	82.9%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	82.9%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	82.9%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	82.9%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	51.7%	72.9%	80.5%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	51.7%	56.8%	80.5%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	51.7%	56.8%	80.5%	33.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	86.7%	56.8%	80.5%	33.0%	62.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	86.7%	56.8%	80.5%	33.0%	62.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	66.1%	58.0%	82.0%	42.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	66.1%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	66.1%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	66.1%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	64.6%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	64.6%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	64.6%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	64.6%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	64.6%	58.0%	80.5%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	64.6%	43.8%	78.0%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	64.6%	43.8%	78.0%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	64.6%	43.8%	78.0%	42.9%	81.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	63.7%	43.8%	78.0%	30.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	63.7%	43.8%	78.0%	30.3%	81.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	66.2%	81.1%	78.1%	48.1%	60.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	66.2%	81.1%	75.1%	48.1%	60.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	66.2%	81.1%	75.1%	48.1%	60.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	66.2%	81.1%	75.1%	48.1%	60.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	66.2%	81.1%	75.1%	48.1%	60.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	67.6%	81.1%	75.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	67.6%	81.1%	75.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	67.6%	81.1%	75.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	67.6%	81.1%	75.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	67.6%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	67.6%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	67.6%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	67.6%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	65.8%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	65.8%	71.8%	62.1%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	62.1%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	62.1%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	64.7%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	64.7%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	64.7%	35.3%	24.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	64.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	64.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	64.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	64.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	64.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	62.9%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	52.7%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	55.5%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	55.5%	57.5%	16.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	66.7%	64.4%	55.5%	57.5%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗