KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

64%

57%

56%

16%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.45u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.55u · ICON −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	52.6%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	21.8%	81.5%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	51.4%	63.1%	21.4%	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	61.6%	67.0%	74.0%	—	67.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	85.8%	70.4%	71.7%	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	78.2%	75.8%	37.5%	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	14.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	70.7%	12.9%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	68.2%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	49.1%	68.6%	15.6%	—	29.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	76.5%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	58.2%	53.7%	67.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	37.9%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	75.3%	38.5%	75.3%	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	53.0%	28.2%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	51.0%	35.9%	66.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	54.2%	44.7%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	55.5%	30.1%	28.2%	0.1%	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	59.0%	61.1%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	63.7%	53.5%	36.3%	23.3%	31.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	35.9%	48.8%	32.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	35.4%	62.3%	25.6%	0.3%	28.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	17.4%	42.3%	33.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	23.0%	34.3%	25.1%	34.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	25.3%	31.2%	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	47.1%	37.2%	40.0%	20.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗