KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

57%

54%

52%

21%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

HRESNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.60u · HRES −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	39.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	71.2%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	37.6%	49.3%	12.6%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	47.1%	52.9%	60.8%	—	53.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	75.5%	56.1%	57.6%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.8%	61.8%	23.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	7.0%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.8%	55.0%	6.1%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	51.7%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	32.2%	51.7%	7.3%	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	60.7%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	40.0%	35.6%	50.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	21.7%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	57.7%	21.8%	57.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	33.5%	14.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	31.2%	19.0%	45.9%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	33.5%	25.3%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	34.1%	14.3%	13.1%	0.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	36.7%	38.9%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	40.8%	31.0%	17.5%	9.4%	14.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	16.7%	26.3%	14.5%	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	15.9%	37.7%	10.0%	0.0%	11.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.6%	20.0%	14.3%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	7.9%	14.1%	8.9%	14.1%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	8.6%	11.8%	7.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	21.2%	14.6%	16.3%	5.9%	11.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	12.0%	9.9%	13.6%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.2%	11.0%	11.0%	1.8%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	3.4%	7.9%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4900
WeatherNext 2	57%	84.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3226
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3181
ICON	54%	84.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2916
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2725
IFS HRES	21%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0433

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗