KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

57%

54%

52%

21%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

HRESNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.60u · HRES −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:38+00:00	81.8%	84.1%	84.3%	73.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	81.8%	84.1%	84.3%	73.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	81.8%	84.1%	84.3%	73.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	81.8%	84.1%	84.3%	73.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	81.8%	84.1%	84.3%	73.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:07+00:00	82.7%	84.1%	84.3%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	82.7%	84.1%	84.3%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	82.7%	84.1%	84.3%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	82.7%	84.1%	84.3%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	82.7%	77.0%	79.7%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	82.7%	77.0%	79.7%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	82.7%	77.0%	79.7%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	82.7%	77.0%	79.7%	71.4%	67.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	82.2%	77.0%	79.7%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.7%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.7%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.7%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	82.2%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	84.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	84.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	84.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	79.0%	71.4%	84.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	79.0%	62.0%	84.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	83.7%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	76.3%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	84.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	78.5%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	77.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	78.5%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	78.5%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	78.5%	78.3%	83.1%	62.0%	77.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	78.5%	78.3%	83.1%	54.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	78.5%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	78.5%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	78.5%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	65.1%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	54.8%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	54.8%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	54.8%	54.1%	77.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	54.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	54.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	54.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	54.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	54.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	64.1%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	70.0%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	70.0%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	70.0%	52.2%	56.8%	20.8%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4900
WeatherNext 2	57%	84.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3226
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3181
ICON	54%	84.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2916
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2725
IFS HRES	21%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0433

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗