KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 04:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 8.1¢Risks 4.03u

EPSNO 92.0¢Risks 45.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.98u · EPS −45.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	2.5%	38.7%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	11.5%	18.4%	2.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	16.1%	19.9%	26.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	39.4%	21.1%	22.2%	—	17.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	26.8%	24.2%	4.3%	—	7.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.6%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	7.1%	17.8%	0.5%	—	1.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	15.2%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.9%	14.6%	0.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	7.9%	6.3%	12.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.4%	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	15.3%	2.3%	15.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	1.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.8%	1.5%	8.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.0%	2.3%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.0%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	4.5%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	2.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	1.6%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	3.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	15%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0225
AIFS Single	12%	83.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0146
ICON	6%	82.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0035
IFS HRES	5%	81.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0029
National Blend	4%	79.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	1%	81.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗