KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.67u · EPS −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	10.7%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	1.6%	32.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	8.5%	14.1%	1.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	12.0%	15.2%	20.4%	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	32.3%	16.0%	16.9%	—	12.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	20.6%	18.4%	2.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.4%	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	12.9%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	10.7%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.8%	10.1%	0.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	14.0%	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.0%	3.9%	8.3%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.4%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.2%	10.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.7%	0.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.1%	0.8%	4.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	1.2%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.1%	2.4%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	85.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0166
AIFS Single	7%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	6%	84.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0030
IFS HRES	4%	80.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0014
National Blend	3%	79.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0008
NWS forecast	3%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0008
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗