KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.67u · EPS −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:04+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	38.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	38.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	38.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	38.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	38.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	45.0%	5.0%	45.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	45.0%	4.6%	45.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	45.0%	4.6%	45.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	44.3%	4.6%	45.2%	33.5%	20.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	44.3%	4.6%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	44.3%	4.6%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	44.3%	4.2%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	44.3%	4.2%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	44.3%	4.2%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	44.3%	4.2%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	44.3%	4.2%	45.2%	33.5%	20.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	45.2%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	45.2%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	45.2%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	45.2%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	36.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:40+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	43.6%	4.2%	42.0%	37.6%	37.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:07+00:00	42.5%	4.2%	42.0%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	42.5%	4.2%	42.0%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	42.5%	4.2%	42.0%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	42.5%	4.2%	42.0%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	42.5%	3.1%	31.5%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	42.5%	3.1%	31.5%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	42.5%	3.1%	31.5%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	42.5%	3.1%	31.5%	36.3%	34.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	41.8%	3.1%	31.5%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	31.5%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	31.5%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	31.5%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	34.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	56.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	56.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	56.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	30.8%	36.3%	56.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	30.8%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	44.0%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	33.9%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	56.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	33.6%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	39.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	33.6%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	39.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	33.6%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	39.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	33.6%	3.4%	36.4%	27.1%	39.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	33.6%	3.4%	36.4%	17.5%	39.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	33.6%	5.4%	14.3%	17.5%	39.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	33.6%	5.4%	14.3%	17.5%	39.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	33.6%	5.4%	14.3%	17.5%	39.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	25.2%	5.4%	14.3%	17.5%	39.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	14.2%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	14.2%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	14.2%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	14.2%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	9.0%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	9.0%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	25.3%	5.4%	9.0%	17.5%	40.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.0%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.0%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.0%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.0%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.0%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	19.9%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	9.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	15.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	15.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	24.7%	5.4%	15.9%	3.2%	18.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	15.9%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	15.9%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	15.9%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	15.9%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	15.9%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	4.5%	5.4%	9.8%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	4.5%	3.7%	9.8%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	4.5%	3.7%	9.8%	2.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	9.8%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	9.8%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:58+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	9.8%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	9.8%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	17.3%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	17.3%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	17.3%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	26.4%	3.4%	17.3%	2.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	17.3%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	17.3%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	17.3%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	17.3%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	6.6%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	10.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	9.2%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	13.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	6.7%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	6.7%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	6.7%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	6.7%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	6.7%	3.4%	9.8%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	5.5%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	5.5%	3.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	5.5%	3.8%	12.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	85.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0166
AIFS Single	7%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	6%	84.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0030
IFS HRES	4%	80.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0014
National Blend	3%	79.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0008
NWS forecast	3%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0008
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗