KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

85%

81%

56%

24%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.45u · ICON −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	92.0%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	62.2%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	38.0%	78.2%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	53.5%	90.1%	40.3%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	93.4%	91.0%	48.5%	—	70.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	47.7%	92.2%	50.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	63.3%	82.1%	48.4%	—	52.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	25.6%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	74.9%	75.5%	78.1%	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	48.3%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	59.6%	73.1%	67.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	51.8%	54.5%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	42.7%	79.1%	67.0%	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	45.3%	74.7%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	50.0%	69.6%	68.7%	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	49.0%	74.3%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	43.9%	56.1%	34.0%	2.4%	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	40.6%	65.5%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	31.1%	58.7%	39.2%	—	43.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	26.7%	63.3%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	31.0%	55.8%	34.1%	2.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	33.6%	48.8%	34.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	22.7%	46.3%	43.8%	27.6%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	30.2%	51.3%	43.6%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	33.1%	58.0%	47.3%	30.7%	42.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	45.8%	66.2%	56.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	61.4%	73.2%	68.2%	44.2%	47.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	71.5%	63.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	50.0%	75.0%	62.4%	43.7%	42.1%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	61.4%	63.0%	73.3%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0222
WeatherNext 2	85%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	81%	82.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	0.0372
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	0.1901
ICON	24%	77.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.5776

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗