KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

85%

81%

56%

24%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.45u · ICON −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:28+00:00	65.3%	87.2%	91.5%	48.4%	57.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	65.3%	87.2%	91.1%	48.4%	57.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	65.3%	87.2%	91.1%	48.4%	57.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	65.3%	87.2%	91.1%	48.4%	57.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	62.8%	87.2%	91.1%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	62.8%	87.2%	91.1%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	62.8%	87.2%	91.1%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	62.8%	87.2%	91.1%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	62.8%	87.2%	91.1%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	67.1%	93.7%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	67.1%	93.0%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	88.8%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	83.6%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	83.6%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	83.6%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	67.1%	93.6%	83.6%	56.2%	57.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	64.6%	93.6%	83.6%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	64.6%	93.6%	83.6%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	64.6%	93.6%	83.6%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	64.6%	93.6%	83.6%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	64.6%	93.6%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	64.6%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	64.6%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	64.6%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	82.1%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	79.7%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	79.7%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	79.7%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	62.8%	93.7%	79.7%	54.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	63.5%	93.7%	79.7%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	63.5%	93.7%	79.7%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	63.5%	93.7%	79.7%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	63.5%	93.7%	79.7%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	63.5%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	63.5%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	63.5%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	63.5%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	61.6%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	61.6%	90.4%	78.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	61.6%	85.1%	78.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	61.6%	85.1%	78.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	61.6%	85.1%	75.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	61.6%	85.1%	75.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	61.6%	85.1%	75.1%	58.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	75.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	75.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	75.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	75.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	75.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	62.6%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	78.1%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.1%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.1%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.1%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.9%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.9%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	72.1%	85.1%	84.9%	62.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	74.6%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	80.7%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	80.7%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	80.7%	85.1%	84.9%	56.4%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0222
WeatherNext 2	85%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	81%	82.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	0.0372
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	0.1901
ICON	24%	77.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.5776

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗