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KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
79%
AIFS
63%
WN2
58%
HRES
51%
EPS
34%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 56.7¢Risks 56.70u
VS
EPSNO 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.30u · EPS −43.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.3% · 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:0069.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%46.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:0072.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%79.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:0072.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%79.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:0072.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%79.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:0072.1%60.7%78.3%56.9%79.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:0072.1%60.7%78.3%50.6%79.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:0072.1%33.9%58.6%50.6%79.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:0072.1%33.9%58.6%50.6%79.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:0072.1%33.9%58.6%50.6%79.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:0062.6%33.9%58.6%50.6%79.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:0063.1%34.0%58.5%50.6%79.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON79%91.3°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single63%87.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%86.5°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
IFS HRES51%85.6°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend34%84.0°F3.7°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble34%84.2°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗