KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

63%

58%

51%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

EPSNO 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.30u · EPS −43.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	67.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	25.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	9.3%	40.6%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	16.6%	59.1%	9.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	65.7%	59.4%	12.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	11.4%	60.6%	12.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.5%	39.0%	10.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	3.0%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	27.9%	28.6%	31.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	14.1%	24.1%	19.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.6%	10.8%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.8%	28.2%	17.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	6.1%	22.4%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	17.1%	16.5%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	6.3%	19.7%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.4%	8.2%	2.5%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.3%	11.6%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.6%	7.7%	2.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.0%	8.7%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	5.4%	1.5%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.3%	3.3%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	2.5%	2.1%	0.7%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	2.8%	1.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	3.5%	1.9%	0.6%	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.4%	4.7%	2.7%	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.9%	5.9%	4.4%	1.0%	1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.4%	2.7%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	91.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	87.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	86.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	85.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	84.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗