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KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
12%
ICON
7%
HRES
6%
AIFS
2%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u
VS
EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:001.3%————1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.7%————22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0014.6%————19.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0035.9%————24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0040.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0028.8%————25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0034.5%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0037.5%————19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0036.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0043.1%————18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0013.1%————20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:007.8%————23.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0016.4%————21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0010.3%————25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:006.1%—0.4%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0025.4%————24.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0021.8%—8.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0032.4%————24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0017.6%—43.1%——23.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0021.1%—22.6%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0024.6%—9.3%——19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0028.6%—25.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0023.3%2.3%18.0%——20.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0020.8%—29.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0020.9%4.7%31.7%2.2%—19.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—25.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0018.9%37.1%31.0%3.1%—10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0012.7%—21.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.2%2.4%30.9%2.9%—2.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:004.6%—20.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.4%4.9%14.0%2.1%—2.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:007.3%0.4%20.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%7.7%8.0%9.3%—2.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.7%1.4%9.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%2.5%5.7%3.9%—0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.4%1.4%1.6%——0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.6%6.6%3.0%—1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.6%4.4%——1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.7%2.7%2.5%—0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%3.2%——0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%1.2%——0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.6%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 212%84.7°F4.1°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON7%82.3°F4.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%80.4°F5.8°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
National Blend3%81.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%80.4°F4.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%83.0°F3.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗