KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:09+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	51.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	51.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	51.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	51.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	47.9%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	43.6%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	45.0%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	23.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	30.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	30.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	30.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	40.5%	29.6%	30.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	40.5%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	45.7%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	41.5%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	43.3%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	60.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	43.3%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	60.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	43.3%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	60.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	43.3%	6.1%	49.2%	32.4%	60.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	43.3%	6.1%	49.2%	27.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	43.3%	4.6%	25.7%	27.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	43.3%	4.6%	25.7%	27.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	43.3%	4.6%	25.7%	27.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	33.2%	4.6%	25.7%	27.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	34.2%	4.6%	26.0%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	26.0%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	26.0%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	26.0%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	18.9%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	18.9%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	34.2%	4.3%	18.9%	27.7%	60.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	20.2%	4.3%	18.9%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	20.2%	4.3%	18.9%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	20.2%	4.3%	18.9%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	20.2%	4.3%	18.9%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	20.2%	4.3%	18.9%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	20.2%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	20.2%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	20.2%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	19.0%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	21.4%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	21.4%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	19.7%	4.4%	21.4%	4.9%	17.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	21.4%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	21.4%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	21.4%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	21.4%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	21.4%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	17.8%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	2.5%	1.4%	17.8%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	2.5%	1.4%	17.8%	2.2%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	25.3%	1.4%	17.8%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	25.3%	1.4%	17.8%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	17.8%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	17.8%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	21.1%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	21.1%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	21.1%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	25.3%	1.5%	21.1%	2.2%	17.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	21.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	21.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	21.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	21.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	16.5%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	6.0%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	24.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	6.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	6.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	12.1%	5.8%	6.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	12%	84.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	82.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	80.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	81.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	80.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	83.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗