KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

75%

72%

55%

35%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

ICONNO 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.65u · ICON −40.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	54.1%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	34.7%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	33.6%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	28.2%	77.2%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.3%	73.1%	24.6%	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	49.3%	63.6%	50.0%	—	42.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	58.3%	59.1%	57.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	42.9%	47.6%	73.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	1.8%	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	53.3%	59.9%	36.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	49.1%	61.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	60.4%	45.6%	43.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	49.1%	53.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	48.2%	59.1%	39.1%	—	37.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	37.0%	57.5%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	40.4%	59.6%	39.4%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	31.7%	50.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	41.8%	43.9%	36.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	41.6%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	39.2%	37.1%	31.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	35.7%	46.6%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	39.6%	44.2%	34.1%	0.1%	35.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	38.1%	48.8%	33.6%	—	38.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	47.5%	56.2%	41.3%	42.6%	38.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	57.7%	44.9%	—	39.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	84.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	83.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗