KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

75%

72%

55%

35%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

ICONNO 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.65u · ICON −40.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.8%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.8%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.3%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.3%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.3%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	78.2%	73.0%	84.3%	37.5%	68.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	84.3%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	84.3%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	84.3%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	84.3%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	53.0%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	74.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	52.4%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	52.4%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	52.4%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	52.4%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	52.4%	73.0%	79.2%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	80.9%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	80.9%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	80.9%	46.4%	61.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	58.8%	70.2%	80.9%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	58.8%	70.2%	80.9%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	80.9%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	80.9%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	80.9%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	58.8%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	61.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	88.3%	41.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	88.3%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	58.0%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	59.6%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	59.6%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	59.6%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	59.6%	72.9%	84.7%	55.5%	69.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	83.3%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	83.3%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	81.9%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	81.9%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	81.9%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	64.4%	86.4%	81.9%	58.7%	72.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	57.8%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	81.9%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	80.5%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	80.5%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	80.5%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	56.1%	86.4%	80.5%	54.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	61.9%	86.4%	80.5%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	61.9%	86.4%	80.5%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	61.9%	86.4%	80.5%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	61.9%	86.4%	80.5%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	61.9%	87.3%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	61.9%	87.3%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	61.9%	87.3%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	61.9%	87.3%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	56.5%	86.4%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	56.5%	86.4%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	56.5%	79.8%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	56.5%	79.8%	81.3%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	56.5%	79.8%	77.1%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	56.5%	79.8%	77.1%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	56.5%	79.8%	77.1%	53.6%	47.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	77.1%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	77.1%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	77.1%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	77.1%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	77.1%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	51.9%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	76.2%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	78.8%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	78.8%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	54.7%	79.8%	78.8%	49.1%	49.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	64.4%	79.8%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	64.4%	79.8%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	64.4%	79.8%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	64.4%	79.8%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	64.4%	79.8%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	64.4%	73.4%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	64.4%	73.4%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	64.4%	73.4%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	63.5%	73.4%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	63.6%	73.4%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	83.3%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	86.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	86.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	86.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	86.4%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	86.4%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	86.4%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	86.4%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	86.4%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	64.5%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	82.5%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	68.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	72.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	34.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	72.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	34.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	72.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	72.1%	72.9%	83.3%	44.2%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	72.1%	74.8%	84.1%	55.4%	34.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	84.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	83.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗