KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

58%

40%

27%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.35u · HRES −50.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	42.4%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	23.9%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	22.6%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	18.0%	65.8%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	29.2%	60.4%	14.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	35.0%	49.3%	35.7%	—	28.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	43.2%	43.9%	42.4%	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	28.1%	32.3%	58.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	36.9%	43.4%	22.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	32.6%	44.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	43.0%	29.1%	26.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	31.8%	35.9%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	30.6%	40.9%	23.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	21.0%	38.8%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	23.2%	40.4%	22.5%	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	16.4%	30.8%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	23.5%	25.1%	19.7%	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	22.8%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	20.6%	19.0%	14.9%	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	17.5%	25.8%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	23.3%	16.0%	0.0%	16.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	18.3%	26.3%	15.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	24.6%	32.0%	19.9%	20.8%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	32.5%	21.9%	—	18.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	31.9%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	86.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	85.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	85.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	82.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗