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KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
17%
WN2
17%
HRES
5%
EPS
2%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 9.5¢Risks 4.77u
VS
ICONNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.23u · ICON −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 28.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 06:0010-13 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:003.0%————4.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0047.9%————31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0046.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0028.8%————29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0034.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0042.6%————26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0034.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0053.7%————25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0025.7%————27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0016.9%————34.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0032.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0031.1%————32.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0024.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.1%————40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0011.5%————36.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0031.7%—26.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0043.2%————36.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0036.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0034.6%—21.8%——32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0036.0%—45.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0038.0%————29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0034.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0035.9%—9.0%——30.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0036.8%—48.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0036.6%—8.0%——32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0029.2%—47.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0025.4%5.6%39.3%——20.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0015.8%—36.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:008.7%10.5%33.0%4.0%—12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.1%—51.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.2%13.2%22.6%13.6%—9.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.9%—40.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:003.8%17.4%17.9%16.9%—8.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:002.6%—21.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.1%8.4%10.4%28.1%—4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:004.1%0.0%10.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.4%12.0%15.7%5.6%—6.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.6%9.5%16.2%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.9%14.6%7.7%6.8%—7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.8%8.5%10.3%——6.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.2%7.6%12.4%4.8%—4.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.7%4.0%10.8%——4.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.1%4.4%11.1%4.2%—4.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.3%2.4%6.6%——3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.8%4.0%4.4%3.0%—3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.8%3.5%4.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.4%2.8%2.4%1.6%—2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.1%1.9%3.8%0.0%—1.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:001.0%2.2%2.9%1.5%0.0%1.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:001.0%1.7%3.3%1.3%—1.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.1%2.6%4.3%1.8%2.0%1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.0%—4.0%1.9%—1.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single17%83.8°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%84.5°F3.1°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS HRES5%80.9°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast4%82.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%82.9°F2.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%80.1°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗