KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.00u

EPSNO 88.0¢Risks 88.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.00u · EPS −88.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	1.9%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	1.9%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	1.9%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	1.9%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	1.9%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.1%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.4%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.4%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.4%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.4%	15.4%	7.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	14.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.4%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.7%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.7%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.7%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	2.7%	18.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	2.7%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	2.7%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	2.7%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	2.7%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	13.6%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	13.6%	0.1%	1.9%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	1.9%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	1.9%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	2.7%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	2.7%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	2.7%	16.2%	17.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.7%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.7%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.7%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.7%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.7%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.9%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.3%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.3%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	14.6%	0.3%	2.3%	19.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	2.3%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	2.3%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	2.3%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	2.3%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	2.3%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	8.8%	1.1%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	8.8%	1.1%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	8.8%	1.1%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	9.2%	1.1%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	9.1%	1.1%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	1.2%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	0.8%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	0.8%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	9.1%	0.9%	0.8%	12.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	0.8%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	0.8%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	0.8%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	0.8%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	0.8%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	8.7%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.3%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	7.2%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	5.4%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	5.4%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	5.4%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	23.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	5.4%	0.9%	1.2%	20.3%	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	23%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	84.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗