KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.00u

EPSNO 88.0¢Risks 88.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.00u · EPS −88.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	24.5%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	40.7%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	41.0%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	46.0%	7.7%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	30.5%	9.3%	49.3%	—	27.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	23.7%	14.0%	23.2%	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	16.4%	16.0%	16.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	26.8%	23.0%	7.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	90.1%	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	17.8%	13.8%	30.8%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	20.1%	12.3%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	12.7%	22.1%	24.1%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	19.0%	16.1%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	19.0%	12.4%	25.9%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	26.9%	12.7%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	23.2%	11.1%	24.0%	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	29.9%	15.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	20.4%	19.0%	24.3%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	19.8%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	20.6%	22.1%	27.3%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	22.3%	14.8%	100.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	18.3%	15.3%	22.4%	96.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	18.3%	11.9%	21.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	11.8%	8.0%	15.1%	14.4%	16.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	6.8%	12.2%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	23%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	84.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗