KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.6¢Risks 13.55u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.45u · EPS −86.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	44.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.2%	20.8%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.0%	14.5%	6.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	14.0%	8.7%	14.4%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	9.3%	16.9%	11.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	16.9%	5.3%	8.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.0%	8.8%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	12.0%	5.8%	6.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.5%	6.1%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.5%	9.0%	8.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	7.1%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.1%	8.6%	3.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.6%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.9%	4.9%	2.4%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.1%	4.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	4.0%	1.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	3.1%	2.0%	0.5%	0.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.8%	0.0%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	26%	84.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	81.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.2°F	1.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗