KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.6¢Risks 13.55u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.45u · EPS −86.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:27+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	50.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	50.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	50.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	50.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	50.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	11.3%	13.9%	43.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	11.3%	3.5%	43.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	11.3%	3.5%	43.7%	6.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	33.7%	3.5%	43.7%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	33.7%	3.5%	43.7%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	43.7%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	43.7%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	44.5%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	44.5%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	44.5%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	33.7%	3.8%	44.5%	7.1%	10.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	44.5%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	44.5%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	44.5%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	44.5%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	24.7%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	35.4%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	23.1%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	25.2%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	25.2%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	25.2%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	25.2%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	25.2%	3.8%	36.9%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	37.4%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	37.4%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	37.4%	12.1%	37.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	22.9%	0.4%	37.4%	10.4%	37.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	37.4%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	37.4%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	37.4%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	37.4%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	32.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	32.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	32.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	41.5%	10.4%	32.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	41.5%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	16.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:30+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	36.6%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	35.8%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	35.8%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	17.8%	0.8%	35.8%	8.6%	32.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	15.2%	0.8%	35.8%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	15.2%	0.8%	35.8%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	15.2%	0.8%	35.8%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	15.2%	0.8%	35.8%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	15.2%	0.8%	35.8%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	15.2%	0.7%	31.3%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	15.2%	0.7%	31.3%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	15.2%	0.7%	31.3%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	31.3%	7.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	13.8%	0.7%	31.3%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	31.3%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	31.3%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	28.0%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	28.0%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	28.0%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	28.0%	7.8%	36.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	12.1%	0.8%	25.6%	5.8%	31.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	12.1%	0.8%	26.3%	5.8%	31.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	12.1%	0.8%	26.3%	5.8%	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	12.1%	0.8%	26.3%	5.8%	31.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	12.1%	0.8%	26.3%	5.8%	31.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	26.3%	8.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	26.3%	8.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	26.3%	8.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	26.3%	8.7%	10.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	26%	84.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	81.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.2°F	1.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗