KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

23%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.85u

EPSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.15u · EPS −86.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	27.0%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	12.4%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	7.9%	3.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	7.4%	4.2%	7.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.4%	9.0%	5.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.7%	2.2%	3.8%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.0%	3.9%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.6%	2.3%	2.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.7%	3.8%	3.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.6%	2.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.4%	3.4%	1.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	0.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.2%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	85.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	85.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	83.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	80.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.6°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗