KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

23%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.85u

EPSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.15u · EPS −86.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:27+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	36.2%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	36.2%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	36.2%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	36.2%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	36.2%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	5.9%	2.8%	28.8%	3.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	29.1%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	29.1%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.1%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.1%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.8%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.8%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.8%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	22.0%	0.4%	29.8%	3.8%	7.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	15.0%	0.4%	29.8%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	15.0%	0.4%	29.8%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	15.0%	0.4%	29.8%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	15.0%	0.4%	29.8%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	15.0%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	15.1%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	15.1%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	22.1%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	13.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	39.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	14.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	14.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	14.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	14.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	14.9%	0.4%	23.3%	6.9%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	85.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	85.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	83.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	80.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.6°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗