KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.2¢Risks 14.20u

EPSNO 85.8¢Risks 85.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.80u · EPS −85.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	5.0%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	84.5%	14.7%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	15.3%	18.9%	33.6%	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	17.5%	25.4%	17.0%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	21.6%	12.5%	18.9%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	10.8%	28.1%	20.6%	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	89.8%	18.4%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	12.9%	23.2%	21.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	34.2%	20.8%	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	23.4%	14.1%	15.6%	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	21.5%	15.5%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	20.9%	11.9%	23.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	17.7%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	21.8%	15.3%	24.0%	—	24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	31.7%	14.6%	—	—	93.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	27.6%	13.9%	26.8%	—	34.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	27.9%	13.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	26.4%	12.5%	16.9%	34.1%	31.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	15.4%	98.5%	—	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	78.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗