KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.2¢Risks 14.20u

EPSNO 85.8¢Risks 85.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.80u · EPS −85.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	12.0%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	12.0%	0.0%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	1.5%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	1.7%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	1.7%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	1.7%	20.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.7%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.7%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.7%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.7%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.7%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	12.9%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.3%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.5%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.5%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	1.5%	23.0%	14.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	11.2%	0.1%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	11.2%	0.1%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	11.2%	0.1%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	11.2%	0.1%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	11.2%	0.1%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	13.6%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.6%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	1.5%	19.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	1.5%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	1.5%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	1.5%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	1.5%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	1.5%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	2.0%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	22.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	28.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	28.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	28.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	1.6%	30.3%	28.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	1.2%	24.0%	28.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	1.2%	24.0%	28.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	1.2%	24.0%	28.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	1.2%	24.0%	28.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	9.1%	0.6%	1.2%	24.0%	27.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	78.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗