KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

73%

71%

64%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.25u · HRES −21.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	4.7%	40.0%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	59.1%	65.7%	38.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	75.1%	55.8%	54.4%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	67.7%	59.1%	51.5%	—	40.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	46.8%	66.3%	62.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	2.0%	58.1%	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	55.8%	73.5%	60.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	47.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	55.2%	70.1%	57.0%	—	54.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	58.0%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	52.8%	65.3%	63.6%	—	53.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	56.6%	67.4%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	53.9%	63.4%	66.1%	57.7%	52.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	64.7%	—	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	82.5°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	82.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗