KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

60%

46%

41%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.2¢Risks 59.15u

ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.85u · ICON −40.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	57.6%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	9.9%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	2.2%	27.7%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	45.1%	52.1%	25.7%	—	36.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	62.3%	41.3%	39.9%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	53.0%	43.9%	36.5%	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	43.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	31.6%	50.8%	46.8%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.7%	41.9%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	39.3%	58.3%	44.2%	—	42.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	31.1%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.9%	53.5%	39.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	40.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	34.7%	47.2%	45.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	37.9%	49.0%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	34.8%	44.2%	47.1%	38.5%	33.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	30.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	82.5°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	82.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	81.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	80.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗