KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

60%

46%

41%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.2¢Risks 59.15u

ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.85u · ICON −40.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	58.8%	69.1%	82.2%	50.7%	59.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	58.8%	69.1%	78.9%	50.7%	59.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	58.8%	69.1%	78.9%	50.7%	59.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	58.8%	69.1%	78.9%	50.7%	59.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	57.8%	69.1%	78.9%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	57.8%	69.1%	78.9%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	57.8%	69.1%	78.9%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	57.8%	69.1%	78.9%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	57.8%	69.1%	78.9%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	57.8%	73.2%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	57.8%	73.2%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	57.8%	73.2%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	56.1%	73.2%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	56.1%	73.2%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	77.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	75.8%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	75.8%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	56.1%	71.6%	75.8%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	74.9%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	57.8%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	60.2%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	60.2%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	60.2%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	60.2%	71.6%	75.8%	52.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	60.2%	68.0%	77.2%	46.4%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	82.5°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	82.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	81.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	80.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗