KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.6¢Risks 4.78u

EPSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.23u · EPS −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:18+00:00	31.8%	1.3%	39.1%	10.1%	9.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	31.9%	1.3%	39.2%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	39.2%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	39.2%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	39.2%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	31.9%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	41.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	41.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	41.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.8%	10.2%	41.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.8%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	21.7%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	43.0%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	37.7%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	37.7%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	22.2%	1.4%	37.7%	9.4%	41.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	21.9%	1.4%	37.7%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	21.9%	1.4%	37.7%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	21.9%	1.4%	37.7%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	21.9%	1.4%	37.7%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	21.9%	1.4%	37.7%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	21.9%	0.8%	39.9%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	21.9%	0.8%	39.9%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	21.9%	0.8%	39.9%	11.3%	46.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	20.8%	0.8%	39.9%	11.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	20.8%	0.8%	39.9%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	39.9%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	39.9%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	46.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	35.8%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	34.2%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	33.5%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	33.5%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	33.5%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	33.5%	11.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	18.7%	0.7%	33.5%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	18.7%	0.7%	33.5%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	18.7%	0.7%	33.5%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	18.7%	0.7%	33.5%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:39+00:00	18.7%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	18.7%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	18.7%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	18.7%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	17.6%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	17.6%	0.9%	28.0%	11.0%	17.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	16.1%	0.6%	29.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	16.1%	0.6%	25.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	16.1%	0.6%	25.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	16.1%	0.6%	25.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	13.3%	0.6%	25.6%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	13.3%	0.6%	25.6%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	13.3%	0.6%	25.6%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	13.3%	0.6%	25.6%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	13.3%	0.6%	25.6%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	13.3%	1.3%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	13.3%	1.3%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	13.3%	1.3%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	19.5%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	18.0%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	18.0%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	18.0%	9.0%	12.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	17.3%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	13.3%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	10.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	12.5%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	4.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	12.5%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	4.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	12.5%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	4.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	12.5%	1.1%	18.0%	12.7%	4.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	81.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	82.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	80.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	82.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗