KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.6¢Risks 4.78u

EPSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.23u · EPS −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	24.5%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.8%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.1%	5.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	11.9%	15.8%	4.4%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.5%	9.3%	8.7%	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	14.2%	9.7%	6.8%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.7%	11.9%	10.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	7.6%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	6.3%	14.8%	8.0%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.8%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.2%	10.9%	5.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.8%	7.3%	6.6%	—	3.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.2%	7.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.2%	5.4%	6.2%	4.0%	3.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	81.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	82.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	80.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	82.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗