KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 07:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

EPSNO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.15u · EPS −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	17.7%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	68.2%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	87.9%	40.0%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	22.4%	17.5%	40.9%	—	29.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	10.9%	24.3%	25.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	15.1%	21.1%	27.0%	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	30.1%	15.4%	17.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	92.4%	20.7%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	21.9%	10.4%	18.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	28.1%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	21.4%	11.8%	20.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	19.0%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	22.3%	13.9%	14.9%	—	21.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	19.0%	12.2%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	20.3%	14.2%	12.6%	17.7%	21.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	13.0%	—	—	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	81.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	81.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	82.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗