KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 07:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

EPSNO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.15u · EPS −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	2.2%	19.5%	13.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	2.2%	19.5%	13.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	2.2%	19.5%	13.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	2.2%	19.5%	13.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	2.2%	19.5%	13.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	1.8%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	1.8%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	1.8%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	2.1%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	2.1%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	2.1%	19.5%	13.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.2%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.1%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.1%	14.5%	15.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	2.1%	14.5%	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	81.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	81.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	82.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.7°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗