KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

72%

67%

48%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

ICONNO 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.90u · ICON −34.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	5.4%	65.8%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	47.9%	70.8%	20.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	27.2%	55.1%	50.0%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	31.6%	50.8%	58.3%	—	54.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	33.7%	52.4%	41.3%	—	46.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	1.7%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	25.1%	59.9%	60.7%	—	45.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	37.4%	69.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	33.8%	62.9%	61.3%	66.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	66.6%	—	—	39.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	83.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗