KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.15u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.85u · EPS −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	7.2%	19.4%	1.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.9%	9.0%	7.1%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.2%	6.5%	9.3%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.2%	6.2%	3.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.9%	7.7%	8.0%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.1%	11.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	7.7%	7.0%	9.0%	3.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	12%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	80.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.5°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗