KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.15u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.85u · EPS −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	17.4%	0.2%	21.7%	5.7%	35.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	21.7%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	21.7%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	21.7%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	21.7%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	17.3%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	17.3%	12.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	11.9%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	11.9%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	11.9%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	11.9%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	11.9%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	12.4%	22.9%	17.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	14.2%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	8.3%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	11.7%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	11.7%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	12.0%	0.2%	11.7%	15.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	11.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	11.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	11.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	11.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	11.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	12.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	12.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	12.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.0%	8.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	11.2%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	11.2%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	11.2%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	11.2%	6.0%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	12%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	80.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.5°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗