KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

81%

70%

70%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

AIFSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.90u · AIFS −15.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	81.1%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	11.8%	62.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	55.6%	82.5%	32.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	74.0%	67.0%	70.9%	—	66.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	72.4%	79.5%	79.5%	—	70.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	80.5%	75.2%	75.2%	71.9%	72.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	72.4%	—	—	73.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	83.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	85.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	83.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	83.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗