KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

81%

70%

70%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

AIFSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.90u · AIFS −15.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:39+00:00	72.9%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	72.9%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	72.9%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	72.9%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	79.3%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	79.3%	99.2%	77.1%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	79.3%	98.3%	77.1%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	79.3%	98.3%	77.1%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	79.3%	98.3%	77.7%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	79.3%	98.3%	77.7%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	79.3%	98.3%	77.7%	62.2%	40.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	77.7%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	77.7%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	77.7%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	77.7%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	77.7%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	69.9%	98.3%	81.1%	86.1%	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	83.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	85.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	83.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	83.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗