KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

74%

72%

66%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.8¢Risks 37.40u

HRESNO 25.2¢Risks 12.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.60u · HRES −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	60.2%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	65.2%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	4.5%	41.9%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	34.9%	65.7%	16.2%	—	46.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	53.6%	45.6%	50.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	50.8%	59.8%	59.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	60.3%	53.2%	53.2%	49.2%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	83.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	84.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	83.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗