KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

74%

72%

66%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.8¢Risks 37.40u

HRESNO 25.2¢Risks 12.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.60u · HRES −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	65.8%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	65.8%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	65.8%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	72.6%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	72.6%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	62.4%	74.4%	72.6%	63.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	72.6%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	72.6%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	72.6%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	72.6%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	72.6%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	67.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	76.7%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	65.8%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	69.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	73.5%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	73.5%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	73.5%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	73.5%	74.4%	74.0%	62.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.0%	65.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.0%	65.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.0%	65.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.0%	65.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.1%	65.5%	74.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	73.5%	84.1%	72.1%	65.5%	74.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	83.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	84.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	83.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗